Data Breakdown: Historic NLD Win & Mid-Season Review

By Harsh Mishra

Review: Tottenham vs Arsenal

I ended the last edition with a not-so-positive feeling about the North London Derby, but what do I know?! Spurs Women managed to defeat Arsenal for the first time in their history. The only goal of the game came in the 58th minute, as Martha Thomas finished off a brilliant passing sequence of 13 consecutive passes, which saw Spurs moving the ball back to front, from a goal kick situation. There have been various discussions about the game already, notably on the N17 podcast, Cartilage Free Captain and also on YouTube by She score bangers. So rather than discussing much on how the game panned out, I will keep the analysis short and to the point.

xG flow chart from Spurs vs Arsenal

The Conti Cup leg of the NLD was very transition heavy, where although we were able to create chances, our defensive shape was prone to runs in behind. I pointed out in the last edition, how Arsenal were able to reach the byline too often. But in this game, Spurs managed to control that very well. There were, however, repeated instances of short corner kicks in the first half, which Spurs didn’t close down well enough. One of them led to Arsenal’s best chance of the half, when Alessia Russo headed it over the bar. There were a couple more half chances for Caitlin Foord. These came from her retaining her aggressive attacking positioning and being instantly played through when Spurs lost the ball trying to attack. There was nothing to note in terms of Spurs’ attacks, in the first half.

The second half started with 15 minutes of dominance by Arsenal, as also shown by the mini-steps (lots of shots), in the xG chart above. Spurs repeatedly lost the ball in the midfield and Arsenal put them under waves of pressure. Luckily our only meaningful attack of the game, turned out to be unstoppable and got us the win. After going behind, Arsenal had a couple of more opportunities from corners, this time directly taken. They also had a couple of other chances that started with crosses from wide areas, but our defenders managed to pressure their attackers enough.

It wasn’t a convincing victory by any means, but after being on the wrong side of glorious finishing streaks from the two Manchester teams, this time luck was on Spurs’ side. A first ever win in the North London Derby in the Women’s game and also the first ever clean sheet, courtesy of the praise-worthy debutant Barbora Votíková.

Mid-Season Review:

We are just one game short of the half way mark of the season and at the start of the WSL winter break. So it’s a good time to look at how the performances this season compare to the ones from the last. Spurs are currently sixth with 15 points, three fewer than their points tally from the whole of last season. So there is a huge progress evident. The last few games against top quality opponents have shown that there is a long road ahead for Spurs, in terms of the team’s ability to go head to head with the top four. But the win against Arsenal will surely be a huge confidence booster for the players and will get them believing in Vilahamn’s methods even more.

Comparison of last season’s attacking numbers vs this

Attacking wise, there is an enormous growth compared to the last season. Numbers relating to chance creation, shooting, as well as territory dominance (touches and passes in the final third) have all seen a big jump. A lot of that is due to a structured possession based buildup, and the creative freedom of the players. The two summer signings, Martha Thomas and Grace Clinton have been crucial on the attacking side. Thomas took the mantel of scoring goals, in the huge absence of the injured Bethany England. While Clinton has arguably been the hub of creativity, helping Spurs progress up the pitch with her Grace-ful dribbling.

Comparison of last season’s defensive numbers vs this

The joy that Spurs have seen on the attack hasn’t been reproduced in defence. While the number of goals conceded per game is very similar to the number conceded last season, the quality of chances being giving up has increased. Indeed, they have regressed across almost all defensive metrics compared to the last season. Losing Olga Ahtinen and then Eveliina Summanen can be identified as one of the reasons for that. Letting opposition runners in behind has been the other reason. It will be interesting to see how we opt to address this in the winter transfer window. A defensive midfielder who is also technically clever on the ball is much needed, alongside a full back, ideally a left footed one.

Having compared this and last season Spurs, let us now look at Spurs’ underlying numbers in relation to the other teams. From the graph below, we can see that Spurs are still well away from the top 4, and are currently just behind Liverpool, in terms of creating quality chances. The second observation that can be made is that almost all the teams in the league have done poorly on the defensive side, with xG against numbers on an increase across the league. This is shown by the downward trajectory of most teams from the blue dots that mark their 22-23 positions.

Chance creation for & against. Better teams tend to be on the top right of the graph.

One thing is clear, if Spurs hope to get closer to the top 4, they not only have to keep playing the attacking brand of football they have tried to play this season. They will need to be defensively solid, especially against the teams near or below them.

Lastly, I will end this mid-season review by reflecting on the article I wrote about Robert Vilahamn’s style of play, at the time he signed, and see how my predictions have fared. Throughout this campaign we have seen a 4231 on the ball, with a preference to building up from the back. We have seen a similar story off the ball as well, a 442/4231 block, the positioning of which is vertically flexible, based on the opposition. Ahtinen took the role that had been Rubensson’s at Häcken, providing the passing range from midfield. The wingers, Clinton and Bizet, much like the ones at Häcken, have been contributing to goals. We are yet to see Vilahamn make any change to the tactical shape, something that he doesn’t shy away from doing. But I reckon that may be more to do with the resources at his disposal.

In short Vilahamn ball is to play bold, to play under pressure, to play out from the back, to dare and to do. At the same time, Vilahamn ball is also about staying compact, playing smart football and giving respect to the opposition when needed.

Thank you for reading.

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