Comparing Spurs Women Managers across the 2022/23 WSL Season

It seems obvious that Vicky Jepson has done a better managerial job than Rehanne Skinner this season. @rachellaracohen takes a look at whether the data back that up.

The simple statistics show that in her tenure Jepson won two games and drew three, only losing three. Compare that to Skinner who lost eleven and won only three, with no draws. If we look at points-per-game Jepson’s games in charge produced almost double Skinner’s (1.125 as compared to 0.64).

Based on these figures we could hypothesise that had Jepson been in charge and Spurs had won points at the rate of 1.125 per game rate all season the team would have finished on 24-25 points, which would have meant they finished two places higher than they did. Still not great, but above West Ham and Liverpool.

If, however, we break down how the managers did against different types of opponent the picture is a little more complicated.

If we think about the League as divided into three parts – the top four teams that were fighting for Champions League (Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City), the bottom four that were fighting relegation (Reading, Brighton, Leicester and Spurs) and the middle four (Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool and West Ham) we can see how the managers did against different types of team.

What becomes apparent is that against bottom four teams (it’s actually three since Spurs are one of them) there is very little difference in terms of what the team has achieved under either manager – whether that comes down to preventing goals (GA) or creating or stopping good chances being created (as measured by expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA)). And Skinner’s period actually produces higher average goals for (GF) but that is largely due to the 8-0 game away at Brighton.

Chart 1: Comparison of Vicky Jepson and Rehanne Skinner’s games against teams in the top, middle and bottom 4 of the 2022/3 WSL

If, however we look at games against middle four opponents, Jepson’s teams score more than double the goals per game than Spurs under Skinner managed in these contests. Notably that is despite not seeing a big increase in xG. That suggests that the increased goals are from making more of the chances that were created. Spurs were, however, also a little less defensively strong in these games under Jepson than Skinner. This somewhat better defensive record may be related to differences in possession statistics, with Skinner’s teams having about 52% of possession against middle four teams, as compared to Jepson’s who averaged 42% in these games (see Chart 2 below).

In contrast Skinner’s defensive record is considerably stronger against top four opponents. Her teams conceded an average of one fewer goal and have much lower expected goals against. Games against top four opponents are, however, unlikely to result in wins, playing better in them makes relatively little difference to overall outcomes.  

Chart 2: Comparison of Vicky Jepson and Rehanne Skinner’s average possession against top, middle and bottom 4 of the 2022/3 WSL

Of course, a big part of this story is the introduction of Beth England in January. Having Beth in the team has made a big positive difference in goals scored against both the middle and top four (despite xG not changing much – an indicator of her incredible efficiency in front of goal). This is not, however, the case for goals scored against bottom four teams, largely because this measure is skewed by the 8-0 result against Brighton that came when Beth was not playing.

Chart 3: Comparison games when Beth England was in and was not playing for Spurs against opposition teams in the top, middle and bottom 4 of the 2022/3 WSL

One way to examine the relative impact of the managerial change versus England’s arrival is to look at only those games when England was playing under each manager. That means only looking at middle and top four opponents. We cannot compare games against the bottom four, because England did not play under Skinner against any Bottom four teams.

Chart 4: Comparison of Vicky Jepson and Rehanne Skinner’s games against teams in the top and middle 4 of the 2022/3 WSL, including only games when Bethany England played.

This is stronger confirmation of what was seen in the above. When you only look at games in which they had England in the side, Jepson did better against middle four (especially at creating and scoring goals) and Skinner against top four sides (in both scoring and defending goals).

Given that by the time that the managerial change happened, Spurs were in a relegation fight and most needed to get points from lower and middle ranked teams, it is therefore arguable that Jepson was the better manager for that fight.

That said, this look at the figures suggests that the question of which manager did a better job is less straightforward than it initially appears. The fact that Skinner played no games against bottom four teams with England in her squad may also have negatively skewed her overall numbers. And that is before we take into consideration that Jepson’s tenure has also seen key players returning from injury meaning that she has had fuller benches and more tactical options.

This is not to take anything away from Vicky Jepson’s period in charge. She did what she had to do. She came in as interim manager with eight games to go and Spurs in a relegation fight and she ensured the team has another season in the WSL. And it was in no way obvious that that would be possible. To do that she needed to cajole what was probably a hugely disillusioned team that had lost 9 on the trot and get them to fight to win – or even draw – games. This is not all apparent in a comparison of goals for and against nor xG or xGA.

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Rachel Lara Cohen is on twitter @spurswomenblog